La tormenta tropical Chantal se está fortaleciendo, ya que acelera el oeste-hacia el noroeste a 26 mph a través de las islas de las Antillas Menores. En 6:22 am AST, St. Lucía registró una ráfaga de viento de 54 mph. Los vientos sostenidos de 38 mph, racheado o 52 mph, se observaron en Martinica a las 10 am AST. Un avión caza huracanes Fuerza Aérea está en la tormenta, y medido vientos máximos en 1000 su "nivel de vuelo de 80 mph a las 8:41 am AST, a unos 20 kilómetros al norte del centro. Sus vientos máximos vistos por instrumento SFMR del avión eran unos 60 kilómetros por hora, y es probable que el NHC subir vientos máximos de Chantal a por lo menos 60 mph en su 11 a.m. consultivo. Barbados Radar muestra una gran área de intensa lluvia que ha organizado moderadamente bien en bandas espirales de bajo nivel que afectan a gran parte del centro de Islas Menores Antillas. Chantal no es muy impresionante en bucles por satélite , sin embargo, con sólo una pequeña cantidad de fuertes tormentas que no están bien organizados. Sólo una pequeña cantidad de flujo de salida de nivel superior es visible. Chantal es la lucha contra el aire seco asociado a la capa de aire del Sahara (SAL), como se ve en los circuitos de agua de vapor satélite.Moderado cizalladura del viento de 15-20 nudos está impulsando aire seco en la tormenta. Las temperaturas del océano son bastante caliente, a 28 º C. Figura 1. Últimas imágenes de satélite de Chantal. Figura 2. la imagen del radar meteorológico de Barbados Chantal tomada a las 9:14 am AST el martes 9 de julio de 2013. Centro de Chantal se encuentra entre Santa Lucía y Martinica. Crédito de la imagen: . Servicio Met Barbados Pronóstico de ChantalChantal es probable que continúen intensificando antes de llegar a La Española el miércoles por la tarde. En su am EDT 5 previsión probabilidad viento , NHC Chantal dio la oportunidad de 23% de convertirse en un huracán antes de llegar a La Española. Trabajando en contra de la intensificación será la velocidad de avance rápido de la tormenta - las tormentas tropicales que se desplazan más rápido de 20 millas por hora en pleno trópico suele haber problemas para la intensificación. Además, en el Caribe Oriental es un área donde los vientos alisios acelerar, ayudando unidad aire descendente que desalienta la intensificación de tormenta tropical. El aire seco también se ralentizará el proceso de intensificación. La interacción con las altas montañas de La Española y de alta cizalladura del viento puede ser capaz de destruir Chantal el jueves. El 08 a.m. EDT Martes pronóstico cizalladura del viento a partir de los modelos BUQUES pide cortante a la altura de la gama alta, 20 a 30 nudos, ya que la tormenta se acerca y cruces Hispaniola el miércoles y el jueves. El viernes y el sábado, cuando se espera que Chantal estar en las Bahamas, baja cizalladura del viento moderado de 15-20 nudos debe permitir volver a la intensificación de la tormenta - si sobrevive a la interacción con las altas montañas de La Española, Puerto Rico, y Cuba oriental. La última ejecución 06Z del modelo GFS disipa Chantal a su paso por La Española, aunque el plazo 00Z realizado 6 horas antes de la tormenta tenía sobrevivir. Chantal tiene el potencial de causar grandes problemas de Haití, que es altamente vulnerable a las inundaciones repentinas debido a la falta de vegetación en las montañas deforestadas.
Sin embargo, hay una gran cantidad de aire seco al oeste de Chantal, que puede actuar para mantener los totales de lluvia en Haití a un manejable 2 -. 4 "Más de 300.000 personas siguen sin hogar y viviendo en campamentos improvisados en Haití, tres años después del gran terremoto de 2010. oeste-noroeste rápida velocidad de avance de 26 mph de Chantal se desacelerará a 20 mph por la tarde del miércoles y 10 mph por la tarde del jueves, mientras la tormenta se "siente" la presencia de una zona de bajas presiones sobre los EE.UU. Este Coast. Este canal dirigirá Chantal hacia el noroeste y luego hacia el norte-noroeste a través de La Española y en las Bahamas. Se espera que el canal de tirar hacia el norte Chantal baja presión para levantar el noreste durante el fin de semana, dejando Chantal detrás de la costa de Florida . alta presión probablemente construirá en, posiblemente forzando una intensificación oeste Chantal en el Florida o la costa sudeste de EE.UU., con la posibilidad de Lunes a tierra. Jeff Masters
Tropical Storm Chantal is strengthening as it speeds west-northwestwards at 26 mph through the Lesser Antilles Islands. At 6:22 am AST, St. Lucia recorded a wind gust of 54 mph. Sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were observed at Martinique at 10 am AST. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and measured top winds at their 1,000' flight level of 80 mph at 8:41 am AST, about 20 miles north of the center. Top winds seen by the aircraft's SFMR instrument were about 60 mph, and it is likely that NHC will bump up Chantal's top winds to at least 60 mph in their 11 am advisory. Barbados Radar shows a large area of heavy rain that has organized moderately well into low-level spiral bands affecting much of the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Chantal is not very impressive on satellite loops, though, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. Only a small amount of upper-level outflow is visible. Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is driving dry air into the storm. Ocean temperatures are fairly warm, at 28°C.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Chantal.
Figure 2. Barbados weather radar image of Chantal taken at 9:14 am AST on Tuesday, July 9, 2013. Chantal's center was located between St. Lucia and Martinique. Image credit: Barbados Met Service.
Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will likely continue to intensify before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 23% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 8 am EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, as the storm approaches and crosses Hispaniola on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, lower moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for re-intensification of the storm--if it survives interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Eastern Cuba. The latest 06Z run of the GFS model dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola, though the 00Z run done 6 hours earlier had the storm surviving. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.
Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday afternoon and then 10 mph by Thursday afternoon, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing an intensifying Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Monday landfall.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Chantal.
Figure 2. Barbados weather radar image of Chantal taken at 9:14 am AST on Tuesday, July 9, 2013. Chantal's center was located between St. Lucia and Martinique. Image credit: Barbados Met Service.
Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will likely continue to intensify before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 23% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 8 am EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, as the storm approaches and crosses Hispaniola on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, lower moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for re-intensification of the storm--if it survives interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Eastern Cuba. The latest 06Z run of the GFS model dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola, though the 00Z run done 6 hours earlier had the storm surviving. Chantal has the potential to cause big problems for Haiti, which is highly vulnerable to flash flooding due to the lack of vegetation on the deforested mountains. However, there is a lot of dry air to the west of Chantal, which may act to keep rainfall totals in Haiti down to a manageable 2 - 4". Over 300,000 people are still homeless and living in makeshift tent camps in Haiti, three years after the great 2010 earthquake.
Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday afternoon and then 10 mph by Thursday afternoon, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing an intensifying Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Monday landfall.
Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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